Non resident · member #1847
Rafael Kingsley
Joined 3 May 2026 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Still in the first two years+10
Joined 0.3 years ago; early-tenure members churn at the highest rate.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$1,280
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Father-Son Scramble 2026 (2)25 Jun 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive24 Jul 2026Board Secretary · Email
Has not missed a Wednesday ladies day since March.
- positive30 Jun 2026Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Phone
Asked for the crab cake recipe for a dinner party at home. Kitchen sent it over. Member declined a call back.