Social · member #1835
Timothy Vandermeer
Joined 2 Mar 2026 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Still in the first two years+10
Joined 0.5 years ago; early-tenure members churn at the highest rate.
- Visit cadence rising-6
Visits up 132% on this member's own baseline.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$1,801
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Back to School Splash 2026 (4)25 Aug 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
- Father-Son Scramble 2026 (2)25 Jun 2026attended
- Family Pool Party 2026 (2)16 Apr 2026attended
- New Member Reception 202620 Mar 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral25 Aug 2026Priya Venkat, Member Services · Email
Called to confirm the dress code for the club championship dinner.
- positive19 Jul 2026Board Secretary · Front desk
Introduced a colleague from the office who is now on the waitlist. Escalated to the general manager.
- positive12 Apr 2026Raymond Petit, Controller · Phone
Signed up for the couples league within an hour of the email going out. Noted on file.