Social · member #1656
David Stockton
Joined 27 Oct 2023 via legacy
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+24
5 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 10.6 — down 53%.
- Bringing guests-9
5 guests hosted in 90 days — members who introduce others rarely leave.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$3,155
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Easter Egg Hunt 202618 Aug 2026attended
- Movie Night on the Lawn 20266 Jul 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
- Ladies Member-Member 202613 May 2026no show
- Family Pool Party 2026 (2)16 Apr 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral22 Apr 2025Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Email
Asked whether the kitchen can accommodate a coeliac guest at a private dinner. Will revisit at renewal.
- neutral7 Feb 2025Board Secretary · Front desk
Asked what happens to the initiation fee if a member resigns within five years.
- negative28 Nov 2024Bethany Cruz, Front Desk · Email
Complained the range balls are worn out and it is affecting their practice.
- negative15 Nov 2024Dale Whitcombe, Head Golf Professional · Phone
Unhappy that the tennis professional cancelled two lessons in a row at short notice. Front desk to note the preference on the account.