Full golf · member #1634
Lucia Devereaux
Joined 21 Aug 2023 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+26
14 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 32.5 — down 57%.
- Discretionary spend dropping+16
$1127 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $2445.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$9,200
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Easter Egg Hunt 202618 Aug 2026attended
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026attended
- President’s Cup 2026 (2)18 Jul 2026no show
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026attended
- Spring Four-Ball 2026 (2)3 Jun 2026no show
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral1 May 2025Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Phone
Asked about the timeline for the short game area. Membership director to follow up.
- neutral6 Oct 2024Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Survey
Asked about the process for putting a membership on hold during a sabbatical. Nothing outstanding.