Social · member #1602
Constance Blackwood
Joined 20 Mar 2023 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+14
10 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 14.3 — down 30%.
- Bringing guests-9
12 guests hosted in 90 days — members who introduce others rarely leave.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$4,743
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Back to School Splash 2026 (4)25 Aug 2026attended
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (3)16 Jul 2026attended
- Father-Son Scramble 2026 (2)25 Jun 2026attended
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026no show
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive30 Jun 2025Raymond Petit, Controller · Front desk
Stopped by the shop to thank Dale for the fitting. Says the new irons have taken four strokes off. Escalated to the general manager.
- negative31 May 2025Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Front desk
Said the halfway house was shut on a Saturday afternoon with no signage.
- positive2 Feb 2025Board Secretary · Phone
Has not missed a Wednesday ladies day since March.
- negative21 Nov 2024Colin Barrow, General Manager · Email
Reported the practice green has been in poor condition for weeks. Assigned to member services.