Social · member #1580
Rafael Jamison
Joined 21 Nov 2022 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+29
3 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 8.4 — down 64%.
- Discretionary spend dropping+22
$266 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $1298.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$4,315
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Family Pool Party 2026 (3)22 Jun 2026attended
- Budget and Dues Presentation 2026 (2)18 Jun 2026no show
- Cigar and Scotch Evening 202631 May 2026attended
- Spring Four-Ball 20265 May 2026attended
- Casino Night 202624 Mar 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive21 Aug 2025Stuart Lang, Tennis Professional · Email
Their daughter made the high school team and they credited the junior programme for it.