Social · member #1558
Ryan Nolen
Joined 23 Aug 2022 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
No signal fired
Nothing in this member's record crossed a threshold in either direction, so the score sits at its floor.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$2,355
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026attended
- Movie Night on the Lawn 20266 Jul 2026attended
- Cigar and Scotch Evening 202631 May 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 202623 Apr 2026no show
- Family Pool Party 2026 (2)16 Apr 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral21 Oct 2025Stuart Lang, Tennis Professional · Front desk
Called about a duplicate charge on the November statement. Posting error, resolved same day. Noted on file.
- neutral24 Jan 2025Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Phone
Requested that club correspondence go to their personal address rather than work. Raised at the weekly staff meeting.