Social · member #1537
Lucia Tremaine
Joined 6 Jun 2022 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+22
9 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 17.3 — down 48%.
- Discretionary spend dropping+16
$668 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $1418.
- Bringing guests-9
4 guests hosted in 90 days — members who introduce others rarely leave.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$4,793
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
- Budget and Dues Presentation 2026 (2)18 Jun 2026attended
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026attended
- Casino Night 202624 Mar 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive10 Nov 2025Stuart Lang, Tennis Professional · Email
Their company has taken a table at the charity scramble for the third year.
- neutral2 Oct 2025Dale Whitcombe, Head Golf Professional · Phone
Enquired about changing membership category at renewal.
- positive23 Apr 2025Priya Venkat, Member Services · Email
Requested a second locker for their son, who has started playing weekly.
- positive22 Dec 2024Marissa Ford, Membership Director · Email
Hosted four guests for the Saturday shotgun and asked about sponsoring the member-guest next year.
- positive17 Sep 2024Colin Barrow, General Manager · Email
Signed up for the couples league within an hour of the email going out.