Social · member #1521
Michael Stavros
Joined 26 Jan 2022 via referral
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+15
11 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 16.3 — down 32%.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$4,012
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Easter Egg Hunt 202618 Aug 2026attended
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (3)16 Jul 2026attended
- Father-Son Scramble 2026 (2)25 Jun 2026attended
- Family Pool Party 2026 (3)22 Jun 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral8 Nov 2025Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Email
Asked whether the range would stay open during the aeration window. No action requested.
- positive28 Apr 2025Marissa Ford, Membership Director · Email
Their daughter made the high school team and they credited the junior programme for it.
- negative17 Feb 2025Tom Halloran, Food and Beverage Manager · Email
Says the pace of play on Saturday mornings has become unbearable. Passed to the golf shop.
- positive21 Dec 2024Raymond Petit, Controller · Email
Their daughter made the high school team and they credited the junior programme for it.