Social · member #1464
James Lockhart
Joined 19 Feb 2021 via event
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+28
4 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 10.8 — down 63%.
- Discretionary spend dropping+22
$55 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $1638.
- Long tenure-3
6 years of membership.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$5,065
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026no show
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026no show
- Cigar and Scotch Evening 202631 May 2026attended
- Family Pool Party 2026 (2)16 Apr 2026attended
- Halloween Costume Party 2026 (3)3 Apr 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral21 Jul 2025Raymond Petit, Controller · Survey
Asked whether junior members may use the fitness centre unaccompanied. Will revisit at renewal.
- neutral17 Jul 2025Raymond Petit, Controller · Phone
Enquired about parking during the works on the north entrance. Flagged for the GM.