Social · member #1435
Nancy Duxbury
Joined 28 Jul 2020 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Long tenure-3
6 years of membership.
- Visit cadence rising-6
Visits up 45% on this member's own baseline.
- Bringing guests-9
7 guests hosted in 90 days — members who introduce others rarely leave.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$8,165
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Easter Egg Hunt 202618 Aug 2026no show
- Independence Day Cookout 20261 Aug 2026attended
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026no show
- Movie Night on the Lawn 20266 Jul 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive30 Dec 2025Marissa Ford, Membership Director · Committee
Their company has taken a table at the charity scramble for the third year.
- positive5 Jun 2025Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Committee
Signed up for the couples league within an hour of the email going out.
- positive18 Sep 2024Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Front desk
Has been bringing the same two guests every other Friday and asked about reciprocal cards for them. Raised at the weekly staff meeting.