Social · member #1431
Devon Aguilar
Joined 19 May 2020 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Discretionary spend dropping+20
$148 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $452.
- Unresolved friction on record+13
2 negative interactions logged in the last six months.
- Long tenure-3
6 years of membership.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$1,605
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Back to School Splash 2026 (3)16 Jul 2026attended
- Family Pool Party 2026 (3)22 Jun 2026no show
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 202623 Apr 2026no show
- Father-Son Scramble 202624 Feb 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- negative17 Jun 2026Nora Sinclair, Fitness Manager · Phone
Says the menu has not changed since the winter and the specials repeat weekly.
- negative16 Jun 2026Colin Barrow, General Manager · Front desk
Feels the club has become louder and less relaxed since the family membership push.
- negative7 Jun 2025Grace Okonjo, Events Coordinator · Front desk
Frustrated by the construction parking and said staff were dismissive about it.