Social · member #1415
Dimitri Northcote
Joined 30 Aug 2019 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Discretionary spend dropping+22
$210 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $1280.
- Visit cadence falling+20
6 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 10.8 — down 45%.
- Long tenure-4
7 years of membership.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$3,872
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Budget and Dues Presentation 2026 (2)18 Jun 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 202623 Apr 2026attended
- Halloween Costume Party 2026 (3)3 Apr 2026attended
- Casino Night 202624 Mar 2026attended
- New Member Reception 202620 Mar 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral25 Jul 2025Colin Barrow, General Manager · Committee
Enquired about adding a spouse mid-year and how the dues would be prorated. Will revisit at renewal.
- neutral24 Nov 2024Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Email
Asked why there is nothing on the courts in the mornings. Would play at nine if there were a group.