Social · member #1270
Lucia Nakamura
Joined 17 May 2013 via waitlist
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Long tenure-8
13 years of membership.
- Bringing guests-9
7 guests hosted in 90 days — members who introduce others rarely leave.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$4,761
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Easter Egg Hunt 202618 Aug 2026attended
- Back to School Splash 2026 (3)16 Jul 2026attended
- Movie Night on the Lawn 20266 Jul 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
- Family Pool Party 2026 (3)22 Jun 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- neutral18 Aug 2026Priya Venkat, Member Services · Committee
Booked the family for Easter brunch, then moved to the later sitting.
- positive26 Mar 2026Grace Okonjo, Events Coordinator · Survey
Their daughter made the high school team and they credited the junior programme for it. Follow-up scheduled for next month.
- neutral22 Jun 2025Marissa Ford, Membership Director · Committee
Asked whether junior members may use the fitness centre unaccompanied.