Social · member #1093
Richard Aguilar
Joined 19 Sep 1993 via legacy
Churn risk
Why this score
Every signed term the model added, heaviest first. Baselines are this member’s own history rather than the club average — a social member who visits twice a month has not disengaged, and comparing them to a full-golf cadence would manufacture a crisis.
- Visit cadence falling+21
5 visits in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of 9.4 — down 47%.
- Discretionary spend dropping+18
$163 in the last 90 days against a personal baseline of $412.
- Long tenure-8
33 years of membership.
This score is arithmetic, not a language model. It is produced by churn model v1.2.0 — a versioned, unit-tested weighted sum evaluated as at 31 Aug 2026, the last date the dataset covers. Run it twice and you get the same number; run it next quarter after a weight changes and the version tells you why it moved. A model would give none of that, and a retention budget defended to a board committee needs all of it.
Discretionary spend
1 Sep 2025 to 31 Aug 2026. Dues excluded: they are contractual and post regardless of engagement.
$1,614
Where they go
Visits by facility across the full 24-month record.
Visit cadence
Sep 24 – Aug 26Event attendance
- Junior Golf Clinic 202630 Jul 2026no show
- Movie Night on the Lawn 20266 Jul 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 2026 (2)5 Jul 2026attended
- Derby Day Party 20264 Jun 2026no show
- Back to School Splash 202623 Apr 2026attended
What staff actually heard
Free-text notes from the front desk, email, surveys and committee. Real club intelligence is not only numeric.
- positive27 Feb 2026Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Phone
Paid the capital assessment early without being chased.
- positive19 Jan 2026Dale Whitcombe, Head Golf Professional · Email
Sent a note after the wine dinner saying it was the best evening they have had here.
- neutral10 Apr 2025Anita Reyes, Front Desk · Front desk
Asked whether junior members may use the fitness centre unaccompanied. Raised at the weekly staff meeting.
- positive13 Mar 2025Stuart Lang, Tennis Professional · Email
Their daughter made the high school team and they credited the junior programme for it. Member declined a call back.